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New Scientist rings the alarm in an article about how rise in sea-levels is actually worse than thought. Contributing Editor Anil Ananthaswamy says that figures (increment of about 50 centimeters by 2100) released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 excludes the natural geological dynamics of sea levels. Ananthaswamy adds an interesting dimension to IPCC’s estimation of about 50 centimeter rise in global sea-levels by 2100.

“Crudely speaking, these estimates assume ice sheets are a bit like vast ice cubes sitting on a flat surface, which will stay in place as they slowly melt. But what if some ice sheets are more like ice cubes sitting on an upside-down bowl, which could suddenly slide off into the sea as conditions get slippery?”

According to Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, even if all emissions stopped today and temperatures remained constant, global sea level would continue to rise at the rate of 30 centimeters per century. Rise in sea levels in imminent. So the more relevant concerns Ananthaswamy suggests are “by how much, and how soon.” Burning fossil-fuels can hasten this rise by 10 meters!
One-meter rise can affect:

• 60 million people living in proximity to the sea-level,  a number expected to grow to about 130 million by 2100. Much of this population is located in East Asia, where countries like Maldives fear loss of land to submergence.

• 13 million people in 5 European countries and property destruction worth $600 billion, with the Netherlands the worst affected. In the UK, existing defenses are insufficient to protect parts of the east and south coast, including the cities of Hull and Portsmouth.

• The entire Atlantic seaboard of North America, including New York, Boston and Washington DC, and the Gulf coast will become more vulnerable to hurricanes. Today’s 100-year storm floods might occur as often as every four years – in which case it will make more sense to abandon devastated regions and towns than to keep rebuilding them.

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